Friday, March 29, 2013

Maxaa dhaqaalaha adduunka hoos u riday?




Maxaa dhaqaalaha adduunka  hoos u riday?W/Q: Prof.Abdi A. Jama.


Mashkilaada dhaqaale ee ka taagan Maraykan iyo Yurub waxay bilaabantay sannadkii 2008. Waxa sababay dhawrkan arrimood ee is huwan:

1-Kobocii dhaqaale oo istaagay.

Kobocii dhaqaale oo hoos u dhacay, isla markaana diiday inuu korba u kaco. Ugu yaraan koboc dhaqaale oo 3% ah ayuu u baahan yahay waddan kasta haddii la rabo inuu dhaqaaluhu deganaado, oo wax waliba caadi noqdaan. Haseyeeshee, waddamada yurub iyo mareykan waxay la’yihiin xataa 1%. Suaasha is weydiinta lehi waxa weeye: maxaa joojiyay kobocii dhaqaalaha? Jawaabta oo kooban waxay noqonaysaa: dhaqaalayaasha mareykan iyo yuruba wey duqoobeen. Duqina ma korto. Waddamada Asia iyoAfrica ayaa ah kuwa dhaqaalayaashoodu da’yar yahay. Sidaa darteed, fursadda iyagaa leh maanta. Bal ka warran mareykanna wuxu la’yahay  1% koboc ah laga soo bilaabo 2008, halka Ehiopia la sheegayo illaa 10% inuu dhaqaaleheedu ku kobacayay dhawrkii sannadood ee ina soo dhaafay.


2-Bangiyada oo darjiidhay.

Bangiyada ayaa iyagana lagu canaantaa in ay qeyb weyn ka qaateen busaaradda iyo hoos u  dhaca dhaqaale ee maanta taagan. Sidaad la soctaan, waxay mashkiladdani bilaabantay markii ay kaceen labadii bangi ee mareykan ee loo yiqiinay Lemons brothers. Bangiyada oo had iyo jeer aad ugu xidhan lacagta amaahda ee ay siiyaan guryaha lagu qaato nidaamka haftada ayaa waxay keentay in shirkadihii dhismayaasha iyaguna ay kacaan. Sababtuna waa qaabka ay u maamuleen hawshaas, taasoo ay si qeyrul masuulnimo amaah badan iska bixiyeen taasoo dadka guryaha amaahda ku qaatey aanay iska bixin karayn. Taasna waxa sabab u ahaa saraakiisha bangiyada oo iyaga hammigoodii noqday sidii ay u heli lahaayeen lacagta mushaqaayadda ah ee xadhaafka ah ee la siiyo markay kala tuuraan iibka guryahaas. Waxay kula baxeen lacagtaas faraha badan ee ay qaataan naanaysta bisadaha naaxnaaxey(fat cats).


3-Dawladaha oo iyaguna fadhadhaqda geeyay.
Dawladaha ayaa iyaguna canaan weyn ku leh sida wax u dhaceen. Waxay runtii ku talaxtageen qaadasho deyn xad-dhaaf ah oo aanay iska bixin karayn xataa dulsaarka, iska dhaaf lafaha oo. Dawladaha iyo bangiyada waxa kale oo lagu heystaa inay u heshiiyeen ummaddii, taasoo halkii laga ciqaabi lahaa bangiyada, lagu badbaadiyay lacagtii ummadda si aanay u kicin bangiyadaasi.





Friday, March 15, 2013

Haddaba, maxaa kiciyay shidaalka.




Haddaba, maxaa kiciyay shidaalka (Q. 2aad). w/q:  Prof. Abdi A. Jama.

Maadaama meeshii uu tartan jiro, kaasoo gaar ahaan u dhexeeya labada shirkadood ee u waaweyn, maxaa kiciyaya shidaalka?. Waaa su’aal muhiim ah. Jawaabtuna waa dhawr arrimood oo is biirsaday.

Waa ta hore’e, waxa la celiyay tiraba dhawr markab oo shidaal ah xagga tayada awgeed. Waa la dadaalay, laakiin mar baa jirta waxtarkaagu noqon karo waxyeello. Waxa loo baahnaa in go’aan qaadashada la hagaajiyo(decision making process) taasoo ah in go’aan kasta oo aad qaadanayso aad isu eegto dhibkiisa iyo dheeftiisa. Waliba markaad ogaato ka warran shidaalkii la celiyay inuu ahaa mid la aqbali karayay, yaanu gaadhin ba heerkii tayada laga rabaye.  Celintaasi waxay keentay shidaalkii oo yaraaday(shortage of supply), taasina waxay keentay in sicirku kaco. Sidaasi waxay waafaqsantahay xeerka dabiiciga ah ee dhaqaalaha.

Taasi waxay dhacdaa marka suuqu yahay mid tartan ku dhisan, halkaasoo dalabka iyo bandhiga(Demand and supply) oo kaliyi ka adeegayaan, dawladduna aanay faraha kula jirin, ha yaraato ama ha badnaato farogalintaasi ye.  Haddaba su’aasha is weydiinta leh waxay tahay, dawladdu faraha miyay kula jirtaa suuqa shidaalkeenna?. Jawaabtu waa haa. Sdiee?. Dawladdu waxay maamushaa haamaha shidaalka, sidaa darteed saamayn ayay ku leedahay suuqa shidaalka. Tani waxay u suuragalinaysaa dawladda in ay saamayn ku yeelato xaddiga iyo sicirka shidaalka(Quantity and Price). Mar haddii ay weelkii heyso kaasoo –monopoly-- u ah , dawladdu waxay kantaroli kartaa xaddiga shidaalka iyo tayadiisa, sida immikaba ay yeeshay iyadoo celisay shidaal.

Sidaas oo kale, weelku wuxu siinayaa dawladda in ay saamayn ku yeelato sicirka. Waagii Total joogtay, may dhicin marna in shirkaddaasi shidaalka keligeed kor u qaaddo(sicirka) iyadoon dawladdu kula socon ama ka ogolaan. Maanta oo aanay Total joogin, wax iska baddalay xaalkii ceynkaas ahaa ma jiro. Maxaa yeelay, dawladdu wali haamihii iyadaa iska leh, halkii Totalna waxa gashay wasaaradda ganacsiga. Waliba muddadii u danbaysay Total wax shidaal ah may keeni jirin ee haamaha ayuunbay maamuli jirtay. Taasi waxay ku tusaysaa in xaalku xaalkii uun yahay.

Waxa intaa dheer, culaysyo ku soo kordhay shirkadaha shidaalka, gaar ahaan intii Total ka baxday meesha, ha ugu horrayso cashuur kordhin, celin shidaal iyo culaysyada aad garan karto ee madax dawlad innagoo kala ah. Taasi waxay keentay in wasaaradda ganacsigu maadaama ay ogtahay xaalka shirkadahaas in ay u garaabto ama ugu yaraan u bislaato in aanay ka hor iman kordhinta sicirka shidaalka. Waxa midhkaa laga fahmi karayay dooddii telifishanka qaranka, halkaasoo wasiirku dooddiisa uu xoogga saarayay sida aanay isugu miisaanayn inta sicirka shidaalku kordhay iyo inta leydhka iyo adeegyada kale kordheen isagoo leh intaasaa ku korodhay shidaalkee, maxaa intaasuun u kordhin weydeen. Rutii waa dood caqli ku dhisan, waxan se ka xumahay suuqa oo isaguna caqligiisa u goonida ah is ka leh. Wasiirku wuxu la garnaqsaday shirkadaha leydhka oo madasha fadhiyay, laakiin maan maqal isagoo la garnaqsanaya shirkadaha shidaalka ee meesha fadhiyay oo leh maxaad u kordhiseen sicirka, maxaa yeelay iyaga war iskuma seeganayn qiyaastayda, haddii aanan qaldanayn.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxa jira keyd shidaal oo shirkadaha laga dhigo, kaasoo loogu talo galay laba arrimood:
1-in dawladdu qiimo nasilan ku iibsan karto, haddii baahi degdeg ah oo qaran timaaddo.
2-in laga iibiyo adeegyada halbawlaha ah sida shirkadaha leydhka iyo basaska, haddii shidaalku kala go’o.
Maanta waxay ahayd maalintii qodobka danbe la fulin lahaa ee shidaalka keydka ah laga iibin lahaa shirkadaha leydhka iyadoo loo xisaabinayo sicirkii hore. Mayse dhicin. Waxa isaguna war xiiso leh noqon kara—haddii uu sugmo-- in shirkadaha leydhka ee Berbera iyo Hargeisa ee dawladdu leedahay laga iibiyay shidaalkii keydka ahaa iyadoo loo xisaabinayo qiimihii hore halka kuwii gaarka loo lahaa ay ku qasban yihiin in ay sicirka kacay ku iibsadaan. Waa yaabee, miyaanay ujeedada ugu danbaysaa ahayn in loo daneeyo qofka muwaadinka ah. Boqolkiiba inteebay adeeg leydh siiyaan shirkadaha dawladda ee ka jira Hargeysa iyo Berbera oo kaliya. Halkaas mays tidhi fahanka dawladnimada ayaa naaqis ah.  Shirkadahaas oo awalba aan is bixin jirin oo aynu aragnay lacagta miisaniyadda ku jirta ee lagu kabay, miyaan ogolaan karnaa haddana in lagu naasnuujiyo keydka shidaalka. Allaylee, waxay ahayd in la daayo oo ay suuqa iska celiyaan sida kuwa gaarka loo leeyahay ba ay beerka ugu dhigayaan. Markii horena daw may ahayn in lacagta cashuur bixiyaha lagu kabo. Balse waxay ku fiicnayd in aan la kabin ee la daayo ha kacaan oo ha la arko tamar-darradooda(inefficiency) iyo maamul xumadooda(poor management).  Yaase yidhi, xoolaha cashuur bixiyuhu waa timir xabaal taal.

Guntii iyo gabogabadii, suaasha is weydiinta lehi waa: side baa looga gaashaman karaa in aanay tanoo kale mar kale dhicin. Yaase lagala xisaabtamayaa oo masuul ka noqonaya, waayo ma rabno in la isku tuurtuuro—macnaha shirkadaha iyo dawladda dhexdooda.

Jawaabta suaasha hore waa in la hubsado in shidaal yaraan aanay dhacayn haddii la is yidhaa shidaal celiya. Maxaa yeelay,  waxa jirta mar aad is leedahay wax taranso laakiin ay ka daran tahay waxyeelada aad geysanayso, gaar ahaan haddii shidaalku uu yahay mid tayadiisa la aqbali karo, yaanu ba gaadhin heerkii tayada la rabay.
Ta kale, keydka shidaalka ee awalba jiray ee aan ka soo hadalay in la sii xoojiyo. Isla markaana laga qeyb galiyo shirkadaha leydhka gaarka loo leeyahay ee aan lagu koobin uun kuwa dawladda, marka sidan oo kale shidaal yaraw dhaco.















Sunday, March 10, 2013

Nooca suuqa iyo siyaasaddeena shidaalka



 Nooca suuqa iyo Siyaasaddeena shidaalka. W/Q: Prof. Abdi A. Jama.

Mawduucani malaha wuxu ku fiicnaa in aan ballaadhiyo oo aan ka hadlo tamarta  (Energy)-ga oo dhan, halkaasoo ay soo galayso dhuxusha iyo Som-gaska aan wax ku karsanno iyo sidoo kale ilaha kale ee tamarta ee mustaqbalka sida dhuxul dhagaxda,  cadceedda iyo dabaysha.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyadoo mawduucan tamartu(energy) uu yahay  mid aan kala hadhi Karin, halkan waxan liishaanka ku saarayaa shidaalka, kaasoo kaalin muhiim ah kaga jira nolosha dhaqaale ee dalka. Iskuma jiro shidaalkuye, naaftada(Diesel-ka) ayaa ah shidaalka ay noloshu aad ugu xidhan tahay.

Suuqa shidaalka,  hadda waqtin xaadirka ah, waxa soo dejiya shidaalka dhawr shirkadood. Labda shirkadood ee Red sea iyo Haas ayaa ah labada ugu waaweyn ee shidaalka xooggisa keena. Isku dar labadoodu waxay keenaan wax ku dhaw boqolkiiba sideetan. Halka shirkadda Red sea ay buuxiso baahida suuqa illaa 45% qiyaastii, shirkadda Haasna waxay waraabisaa suuqa Ilaa 35%. Boqolkiiba labaatanka soo hadhay waxa wadaaga shirkadaha yaryar ee kale.

Markay sidaas tahay, nooca suuqu waa Oligpoly. Suuqa waxa loo yaqaan oligopoly marka 2-4 shirkadood ay suuqa heystaan wax ka badan boqoliiba lixdan. Halkan waxaynu aragnaa in ay laba ka mid ahi haystaan boqolkiiba sideetan. Suuqa noocan ah tartanku ma sahlana. Maxaa yeelay waxa jira laba shirkadood oo waaweyn oo suuqii isku heysta isuna muuqda oo ficiltamaya sidii laba dumar ah oo la wada qabo. Tartanku markan oo kale wuxu noqonayaa  nooca loo yaqaan tartan istiraatijiyadeed (strategic competition). Shirkad kasta inta aanay tallabo qaadin waxay ka fikiraysaa sida ay shirkadda kale uga jawaabi doonto.

Dhinaca kale, marka laba shirkadood oo kaliyi ay suuqa heystaan, waxa la yidhaa lababa filo: in ay galaan tartan ciddiyo ku dagaallan ah oo ah kaas aynu kor ku soo sheegnay iyo in ay dadka u heshiiyaan (collusion). Haddii aanan qaldanayn, illa imika labada shirkadood ee suuqa shidaalka heystaa waxa muuqata in ay qaateen dariiqa tartanka,  taasoo tartankoodii uu gaadhay meel adag.  Sidan ayay danta ummadu ku jirtaa waayo haddii labada cimlaaq dadka u heshiiyaan taasi dan uma aha muwaadiniinta.

Si kastaba ha ahaatee,  waxa lagu hungoobay sheekadii odhan jirtay haddii Total la eryo, shidaalka ayaa jabi doona. Sida aynu la wada soconno wax ku kordha mooyee waxba iskama dhimmin sicirka shidaalka tan iyo intii la eryay Total. Xaqiiqadu wax weeye, in aanay Total shidaal keeni jirin intii danbe oo dhan laakiin ay maamuli jireen haamaha oo kaliya. Halkii Total immika waxa gashay wasaaradda ganacsiga ama maamulka haamaha. Taasi waa sababta wax isbeddel ah aynaan u dareemin. Waxa intaa dheer in xukuumaddu cashuurta shidaalka kor u qaaday intii Total la ceydhyay kadib.

Ugu danbeyntii anigu waxan soo jeedin lahaa in haddii sicir ama cashuur kordhin laga fursan waayo aynu baatroolka saarno, laakiin naaftada aynu ka ilaalino in wax korodh ahi sicirkeeda ku yimaaddo. Aniga ilama qummana siyaasadda shidaalka ee odhanaysa isku sicir ha noqdaan baatrolka iyo naaftadu. Maxaa yeelay waxaynu ognahay in naaftada ay wax waliba ku xidhan yihiin, taasoo haddii ay korodho ay wax walba kordhayaan. Leydhku wuu qaali garoobayaa waayo naafto ayay isticmaalaan, basku wuu qaali garoobayaa waayo naafto ayuu ku shaqeeyaa. Caanaha iyo hilibku way kacayaan waayo baaburta soo qaaddaa noolka ayay kor u qaadayaan maadaama ay naafto isticmaalaan. Sidaa darteed, haddii laga fursan waayo fadlan aynu qaali garayno baatroolka laakiin yaan la taaban naaftada.

Sidoo kale, tamarta oo dhan waa in aynu u maamullaa qaab aynu uga fikirnay tashiilka iyo ilaalinta degaanka . taasi waxay u baahan tahay in aynu dhiirigalino Som-gasta innagoo dhinaca kalena ka hawlgalayna sidii dhuxuldhagaxda iyo ilaha kale ee tamarta looga faaidaysan lahaa mustaqbalka. Waxa la yaab leh oo arrintaa ka soo horjeeda in xukuumaddu ay dhawaan kordhisay cashuurta Som-gasta,  taaso dad badan oo dhuxusha ka wareegay ay dib ugu soo noqdeen dhuxushii ka dib markii haantii laga siin jiray $25 ay noqotay $30. Aan is weydiino qoyska isticamaala Somgaska, immisa geed ayuu badbaadinayaa sannadkii?





The baneful dualism is not the end of the world!!!!!



The baneful dualism is not the end of the world!!!. By: Prof. Abdi A. Jama.

Practicing or leading such a life (dualism) is sinister and noxious all across the board—from individual to national level.  Tribalism and nationalism are quite disparate; partisan and clannish are also quite distinct. Behaving like squanderer and avaricious also come against being indigent, destitute post-conflict country. A nation short of erudite scholars, yet not able to tap the few at disposal is bewildering and confusing. A nation whose saving is minuscule, yet did not manage to properly direct the little available into productive domains is also frustrating and distressful.  A country whose people are mainly Muslim-practicing, yet obdurate in such aforementioned blunder is also unfathomable question.

You may wonder how to solve such formidable, full of challenges dualism enigma-s we mentioned above. However, it is natural to have such dichotomy in human life, be it politics, economics and social. That is the reason we have economic, social and political conundrums that always need solution from political scientists, economists, social experts, etc. if there were not any dualism-- where everything is harmonious—we would not resort to political, economic, social and legal disciplines to help us solve the hard choices we face every-day, and hence the world would have been something quite different from the world we live in.

Dualism delineates the relevant delicate aspects of social, political and economic problems that need to be handled and managed in a manner that would give maximum benefit for the majority of the people by keeping all detrimental effects at bay as much as possible.  This would entail the identification and delineating where exactly the public interest does lie amongst given alternatives or options available in particular episode of time. This is the job of policy-makers with the help of academicians in different fields of knowledge.  In this regard, organization of society or nation is the most paramount issue. Leadership is the eminent element in the organization that would not emancipate the feeble-minded people so that they would keep scholars and expertise at arm’s length. Again, it is the leadership that would not give opportunity to selfish, wealth thirsty individuals. It is the leadership that would allocate meager resources of a flat broke country as efficiently as possible. No place for wasting and squandering as well as misallocation.

In order to move forward despite dualism--tribalism against nationalism, partisan against clannish and the likes-- rule of law is the second most important element for ensuring  the harmonization and solidarity of the organized body—the state,  so as not to fall apart amidst adversities that might arise from within or outside the state. For instance, election disputes can only be dealt with independent,  credible judiciary courts.  In this context, state should be based on consensus based constitution that would ramify later on into legislations in every area of life. This would require committed policy makers as well as scholarly expertise in jurisprudence, Economics and political as well as social sciences.

Laba labada is ka soo horjeedaa, xal waa loo heli karaa!!!
Laba labada aan is ogolayn waa shar waxyeello badan, laga bilaabo qof illaa qaran. Qabyaaladda iyo qaranimadu waa laba kala duwan. Xisbinimada iyo reernimaduna aad bay u kala geddisan yihiin. In aad u dhaqanto si iiman la’aan ah oo israafnimo ku jirto waxay ka hor imanaysaa inaad tahay waddan faqiir ah oo faramadhan.  In aad tahay waddan aqoontu ku yar tahay, haddana aan ka faa’iidaysan mutacallimiintiisa aad ka u tirade yar ee khubarada ah,  ma aha laba iyaguna is qabanaya. Waxa sidoo kale aan is ogolayn inaad tahay waddan kaydkiisu yar yahay, haddana aan u jihayn wixii yaraa meelaha wax- soo -saarka leh. Waxa iyadana kaa fajacinaysa waddan dadkiisu islaamniamada ku fiican yihiin, haddana ku dheggan falalka qaladka waawayn ah ee kor aan ku soo sheegnay.

Dad badan ayaa marka ay arkaan waxyaalaha aan is ogolayn ee ka buuxa nolosheena, waxay taasi ku keentaa niyad jab iyagoo is odhanay arrimahani  xal ma laha. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, waxan halkan badheedhahayg ka dhiibanayaa in arrimaha noocan ah ee aan is qaban ay yihiin wax caadi ah,  taasoo ah sababta ay u jiraan cimiyada dhaqaalaha, siyaasadda, sharciga iyo kuwa la midka ah. Culuumtan ayaa isku dayda in ay is waafajiso arrimahan aan is ogolayn ee laba labada ah. Haddii ay adduunyadu ahaan lahayd mid ka madhan qodobadaas iska soo horjeeda, waxabay noqon lahayd adduunyo ka duwan tan aynu ku noolahay isla markaana may jireen loomana baahdeen cilmiyadaas aynu kor ku soo sheegnay.

Laba labada iska soo horjeeda waxay inoo tilmaamayaan meelaha xasaasiga ah ee u  baahan in aynu si taxadir leh u maalmulo tiiyo loo xaqiijanayo bulshada aqlabiyadeeda faa’iidada ugu badan, lagana fogeynayo wixii dhib u leh. Taasi waxay u baahan tahay in la isla xarriiqo halka ay taallo ama ku jirto danta guud. Waa halka ay u dhimataye!! Taasi waa hawl u taalla madaxda hoggaaminaysa waddanka iyagoo kaashanaya khubarada kala duwan ee lagu yaqaan in ay ku xeel dheer yihiin tacliinta. Halkan waxan ka fahmi karnaa qiimaha ugu weyni  inuu yahay sida ummadu u abaabulan tahay qaran ahaan. Taasi waa marka la helo hoggaan kaasoo isagu qaranka u abaabulaya sida ugu fiican, isagoon fursad siinayn kuwa ma kasta ah ee kalsoonidu ka maqan tahay kuwaasoo caado ka dhigtay in ay fogeeyaan dadka aqoonta leh ee khibraddooda laga faa’iidaysan lahaa. Sidoo kale ma siinayo fursad kuwa hunguriga badan ee hammigooda ugu weyni yahay adduun urursi iyo iimaan la’aanta. Isaga iyo kaaliyayaashiisa isku kalsoon,  ee iimaanka qaba ayaa sida ugu fiican u meelaynaya adduunka yar ee aynu haysanno. Ma jirto wax la daadaadinayo iyo israafnimo.

Si hore loogu socdo tiiyoo ay jirto laba labada aan is qabanayn,  waxa lagama maarmaan ah in la xaqiijiyo waxa loo yaqaan: rule of law,  ama sarraynta sharciga. Tani waxay waddanka ka badbaadinaysaa dhibaatoyinka waawayn ee gilgili kara qaranimada. Tusaale,  dhibaatoyinka ka dhasha doorashooyinka. Tani waxay u baahan tahay madax ay ka go’an tahay ka shaqaysiinta sharciga iyo in laga gudbo  marxaladdan immika aan ku jiro,  ee qofka madaxda ama lacagta ama wajiga leh aanu sharcigu qaban,halka uu qabto miskiinka. Si loo gaadho yoolkan waa in dastuurka waddanku ka turjumayo waxyaalaha la isku waafaqsan yahay lagana ilaaliyo waxyaalaha la isku khilaafsan yahay kuwaasoo sharciga lagula tacaali doono. Tani waxay u baahan tahay masuuliyiin ay ka go’an tahay isla markaan ay u caddahay qaranka ay rabaan in ay dhisaan iyagoo kaashanay khubarada ku xeel dheer culuumta kala duwan, gaar ahaan kuwaa sharciga, dhaqaalaha, siyaasadda iy bulshadaba.